What are the odds?
Earlier today I put up a short post about firing Al Trautwig. At the same time, wholly unbeknown to me, Don (my roommate) was creating a Facebook group called Fans Against Al Trautwig. The odds of this are incredible. Let me do the math for you:
- It is estimated that 106,456,367,669 people have existed on this planet.
- The odds of picking two of these people at random and having those 2 be Don and me are ~ 1/106,456,367,669 * 1/106,456,367,669
- Assume we both think of a human (any human) at a given point in time.
- I estimate the odds of both of us thinking about the same human to be 1/1000*1/1000 (1000 being the intersection of people we both know)
- The universe is about 13.7 billion years old = 1.20091635 × 1014 hours
- The odds of me having a cogent thought in the timespan of an hour are estimated to be 1/500.
- Assume Don thinks (yes, I know this is the weak point in my argument).
The odds of picking 2 people, having those 2 people be Don and I, having us think about Al Trautwig in the same hour, having that hour be this morning, having us exist at this point in time, and choosing this situation to occur within the known age of the universe is then (plus or minus 40 orders of magnitude):
1/106,456,367,669 * 1/106,456,367,669 * 1/1000 * 1/1000 * 1/500* 1/1.20091635 × 1014 = 1.46 × 10-45