I love when my opinions on politics are validated.
The expert on experts is Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley. His 2005 book, “Expert Political Judgment,” is based on two decades of tracking some 82,000 predictions by 284 experts. The experts’ forecasts were tracked both on the subjects of their specialties and on subjects that they knew little about.
The result? The predictions of experts were, on average, only a tiny bit better than random guesses — the equivalent of a chimpanzee throwing darts at a board.
“It made virtually no difference whether participants had doctorates, whether they were economists, political scientists, journalists or historians, whether they had policy experience or access to classified information, or whether they had logged many or few years of experience,” Mr. Tetlock wrote.
Political science? Hardly. Or, maybe this study is the hard-line GOP right-wing rhetoric of the filibusting demopublicans trying to oppress Ann Coulter by using Fox News as the media outlet for Conservative think-tank Democrats hellbent on keeping their liberal agenda.